US intelligence reports suggest that the likelihood of Russia using nuclear weapons remains low, even after President Biden authorized Ukraine to deploy long-range missiles within Russian territory. Though Russian President Vladimir Putin revised nuclear policy to lower the threshold for their use, experts believe nuclear escalation is unlikely, with Moscow expected to resort to alternative retaliatory tactics like sabotage and cyberattacks.
(Washington) – US intelligence has concluded that despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggressive warnings, the chances of nuclear escalation remain low. This comes after the Biden administration approved Ukraine’s use of long-range American missiles, a decision that prompted Putin to revise Russia’s nuclear doctrine on November 19, 2024.
Under the revised doctrine, Russia now views any conventional attack on its territory, if supported by a nuclear-capable state, as grounds for a nuclear response. However, intelligence officials believe that using American missiles like ATACMs will not fundamentally shift Russia’s nuclear calculus.
“The ATACMs weren’t going to change Russia’s nuclear calculus,” a congressional aide familiar with the intelligence briefings said.
Although nuclear retaliation is seen as unlikely, there are heightened concerns about other forms of Russian reprisals. Angela Stent, an expert in Eurasian studies at Georgetown University, stated that the risk of escalation has always existed but noted growing concerns about hybrid tactics, including sabotage and cyberattacks.
A significant factor in the US decision to authorize long-range missile strikes was the deployment of North Korean soldiers to assist Russian forces. Reports indicate that between 11,000 and 12,000 North Korean troops have entered the conflict, intensifying the situation and prompting the Biden administration to escalate Ukraine’s military capabilities.
Despite Putin’s frequent nuclear threats, analysts emphasize that Moscow views nuclear weapons as a last resort. Instead, Russia may respond by mirroring what it sees as US escalation. This possibility was underscored by Russia’s November 21, 2024, launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.
| Event | Date | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Revision of Russian Nuclear Doctrine | Nov 19, 2024 | Russia lowered its nuclear-use threshold. |
| Deployment of North Korean Troops | Late 2024 | 11,000–12,000 soldiers joined Russian forces. |
| ICBM Strike on Dnipro | Nov 21, 2024 | First recorded combat use of an ICBM in war. |
The missile, believed to be an RS-26 Rubezh capable of carrying nuclear warheads, traveled approximately 600 miles from the Astrakhan region to strike its target in less than five minutes. This marked the first recorded use of an ICBM in combat against Ukraine
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