Donald Trump has presented a complex and often contradictory stance on Russia’s war against Ukraine, following negotiations between his team and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s representatives in Saudi Arabia. Trump hailed the discussions as a success, claiming that Ukraine had agreed to a ceasefire. However, he admitted that the final decision rested with Russia and that his team was waiting to see whether Moscow would agree.
Trump expressed confidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin might comply, although he acknowledged the serious risks involved. “This is a situation that could lead to World War Three,” he said, while blaming the Biden administration for allowing the war to happen in the first place.
His position has been met with scepticism, as Trump has previously praised Putin and shown reluctance to take strong measures against the Kremlin. When asked whether he would impose sanctions to pressure Russia, Trump avoided making a firm commitment. He did, however, warn that he could take financial measures that would be “devastating” for Russia.
Trump also attempted to frame himself as the only US president who had managed to keep Russia’s territorial ambitions in check. He pointed out that Russia seized Georgia under George W. Bush, annexed Crimea under Barack Obama, and invaded Ukraine under Joe Biden, claiming, “The only one they never took anything from was Trump.”
Despite this, Trump’s refusal to take a firm stance on sanctions or military support raises doubts about his ability to enforce a meaningful peace agreement. His preference for economic pressure rather than military aid or direct intervention could leave Ukraine vulnerable to Russian aggression.
Meanwhile, Putin has been strengthening his negotiating position. For the first time during the war, he appeared in combat gear while allegedly visiting Russian-occupied territories. His visit to the Kherson region signalled the strategic importance of the area and suggested that he remains committed to further territorial gains.
Trump’s negotiations with Zelensky’s team took place in Saudi Arabia—an interesting choice given the oil-related economic leverage both the US and Russia hold. Trump has indicated that lowering oil prices to 65 dollars per barrel could weaken Russia’s ability to finance the war. However, Russia has been bypassing Western sanctions through its so-called “shadow fleet,” exporting oil to China, India, and other nations that refine and resell it to European markets.
Putin’s long-term strategy appears to hinge on stalling negotiations and waiting for political shifts in the West. He has repeatedly sought to exploit divisions in the United States and Europe, hoping that pressure from Trump or other Western leaders might force Ukraine into concessions. However, analysts suggest that Ukraine and its allies are increasingly aware of this tactic.
Experts have warned that Putin is unlikely to accept any agreement that does not allow him to maintain control over occupied Ukrainian territories. His goal, they argue, remains unchanged: to eliminate Ukraine as a sovereign state and install a pro-Kremlin government in Kyiv.
Former US diplomat Kurt Volker has stated that a lasting peace agreement with Russia is unlikely, but a ceasefire might be possible. However, if Putin refuses to compromise, the West may need to step up its support for Ukraine, potentially including European forces on the ground.
There is growing recognition in Europe that Putin will not stop in Ukraine. Countries such as Britain, France, Germany, Poland, and the Baltic states have intensified support for Ukraine, realising that Russian aggression threatens the entire region. The idea of a Western security guarantee, including possible European peacekeeping troops in Ukraine with US backing, has gained traction.
In the face of these developments, Trump’s approach to Russia remains unclear. His rhetoric fluctuates between warnings and appeasement, leaving uncertainty over how he would handle Putin in a future presidency.
