Russian forces have suffered significant losses in their attempt to capture Kupiansk, with Ukrainian troops successfully repelling attacks and reclaiming territory along both banks of the Oskil River. The failure of Russia’s offensive has resulted in the depletion of its forces and a shift in momentum toward Ukraine’s defenders. Military observer Alexander Kovalenko reports that the Russian military grouping in the Kupiansk direction is struggling to maintain its position and risks complete collapse.
In November last year, Russian troops established a small bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskil to support their main offensive toward Kupiansk on the eastern bank. However, after four months of intense fighting, this position remains limited in size and has come at the cost of heavy Russian casualties. In recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have successfully pushed Russian troops back from several positions on this bridgehead. The Russian 69th Motorised Rifle Division, which has been at the centre of the fighting, is steadily losing manpower and combat effectiveness.
The situation has worsened for the Russian forces as Ukraine has also pushed them back along the main attack route towards Kupiansk, particularly near the village of Synkivka on the left bank of the Oskil. This further diminishes the effectiveness of Moscow’s offensive operations in the region. As a result, questions are being raised about the strategic purpose of the Russian assault. With heavy losses and no substantial gains, Russian commanders now face a dilemma over their next steps.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi has revealed that Russian forces have suffered 54,900 casualties in Kursk Oblast alone, with 22,200 classified as irreversible losses. These losses have had a significant impact on Russia’s overall military strategy, limiting its ability to reinforce key areas of its offensive. If these troops had not been drawn into the fighting in Kursk, they could have been deployed to more critical locations such as Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, or the Kupiansk-Lyman front. Instead, the Russian military has been stretched thin, allowing Ukraine to launch successful counteroffensive operations in Toretsk and maintain a strong defence in Chasiv Yar.
Without the Kursk operation diverting Russian troops, Ukraine’s success in Pokrovsk and other contested areas could have been significantly more difficult. Instead of launching counterattacks in the region, Ukrainian forces might have faced encirclement, forcing difficult strategic decisions.
