[VIDEO] Russia Turns Belarus into a Launchpad for War Against Europe

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Russia is preparing to station up to 150,000 troops in Belarus, creating a direct threat not only to Ukraine but also to neighbouring European countries. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Zelensky’s message was a stark reminder that Russia’s ambitions extend beyond Ukraine’s borders. His warning comes as Denmark’s Foreign and Military Intelligence Service published its 2024 report, which predicts a Russian invasion of Europe within the next five years.

Europe has already seen this playbook before. In early 2022, under the guise of the “Allied Determination” military exercises, Russia transferred 40,000 troops into Belarus, many of whom later took part in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Belarusian deployment was the largest of its kind, with troops fully equipped and supplied for an assault. Analysts fear that Russia could repeat this tactic under the cover of the upcoming “West 2025” exercises.

Currently, just over 2,000 Russian troops are present in Belarus, mainly operating air defence and electronic warfare systems. The breakdown of their deployment includes:

These forces do not currently constitute a full ground assault group, but experts warn that Russia could rapidly expand its presence under the pretext of joint exercises. Ukrainian military expert Mikhail Zhirokhov believes that while Russia might have plans for an offensive through Belarus, it lacks the necessary forces to carry out a large-scale invasion of Kyiv.

Zhirokhov argues that in 2022, 100,000 Russian troops were insufficient to achieve their objectives, and today, Russia faces severe manpower and equipment shortages. Ukrainian forces have significantly weakened Russia’s elite military units, especially airborne troops, which were decimated in battles near Kyiv and Chernihiv. He suggests that Moscow’s reliance on mobilised troops and ex-prisoners makes a major operation against Kyiv unlikely in the near future.

Russia’s offensive in Donetsk has so far only gained a few hundred metres of territory, making the prospect of a breakthrough towards Kyiv unrealistic. Despite this, Ukraine continues to warn its Western allies that Russia remains a persistent threat. The fear is that if Russia successfully entrenches itself in Belarus, it could open the door to future offensives against not just Ukraine but also Poland and the Baltic states.