(Kyiv) – Russia’s plan to conquer Kyiv swiftly and dominate Ukraine relied on arrogance, disorganization, and a gross underestimation of Ukrainian resistance. Six days before the invasion, a small group of Western intelligence officers, gathered in an unassuming London restaurant, detailed a shocking Russian blueprint: a blitzkrieg to encircle major Ukrainian cities, eliminate key leaders through a “kill list,” and parade victorious troops through Kyiv. This overconfidence would soon unravel spectacularly.
Russian troops amassed near Ukraine for months, with Western intelligence confirming invasion plans by late 2021. Soldiers stationed in Belarus idled away their time selling diesel fuel and drinking, oblivious to the scale of the upcoming conflict. Even among elite units, misinformation prevailed; some were issued parade uniforms, expecting a triumphant march through Kyiv’s Khreshchatyk within three days.
The Kremlin’s scheme hinged on taking Kyiv via an assault from Belarus, capturing Hostomel airbase to secure a supply line for troops. CIA Director Bill Burns personally warned President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of this critical objective. This intelligence, paired with strategic cooperation between Ukraine and the West, allowed Kyiv to bolster its defenses just in time.
When Russia launched its assault on February 24, 2022, capturing Kyiv was deemed pivotal. The invaders’ overconfidence, however, became their undoing. Poor planning left Russian troops without essential air and missile support. Hostomel airbase, attacked by 20 Russian helicopters, saw fierce resistance from Ukraine’s ground defenses, which managed to thwart Russian reinforcements.
The defenders, including non-combat national guardsmen, displayed extraordinary courage. Colonel Andrii Antonyshchak emphasized the heroism of a small Hostomel brigade that prevented Russian transport planes from landing. “Had they not acted, the road to Kyiv would have been open,” he said.
Despite having superior numbers and firepower, Russia squandered its military advantages. Analysts like George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War pointed to Russia’s ineffective seven-hour air campaign, which failed to destroy Ukrainian command centers or key assets. The Kremlin also underestimated Ukraine’s determination, assuming little resistance.
On the ground, the invaders conducted poorly coordinated special forces raids targeting President Zelenskiy. Gunfights erupted near Kyiv’s government quarter, but Russian forces failed to breach the defenses. Zelenskiy refused a U.S. evacuation offer, famously responding, “I need ammunition, not a ride.” By February 25, Zelenskiy stood firm, posting a video affirming Ukraine’s leadership was intact.
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