The Kremlin continues to demand that Ukraine surrender occupied territories, and Russian leader Vladimir Putin is unlikely to abandon his expansionist goals, even in the event of a ceasefire. This assessment comes from analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as reported by UNN.
Analysts at ISW cite US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, who stated on 16 March that Ukraine would receive indefinite security guarantees in exchange for indefinite territorial concessions. Waltz added that the United States is considering the “reality of the situation on the ground” in diplomatic talks on ending the war. However, the exact meaning of this phrase remains unclear. Russian officials frequently use similar rhetoric to justify their insistence that negotiations reflect the current front line and their claims of inevitable Russian victories.
Waltz’s admission that Ukraine will receive long-term security guarantees is considered crucial for achieving US President Donald Trump’s stated objective of securing lasting peace in Ukraine. However, ISW analysts warn that halting hostilities along unprotected lines would significantly weaken these guarantees. The current front line lacks the strategic depth Ukraine needs to reliably defend itself against future Russian aggression.
Russian troops remain stationed on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, just 25 kilometres from Zaporizhzhia and 30 kilometres from Kharkiv. A ceasefire would allow them to prepare for a potential river crossing, greatly increasing the chances of success in a future offensive. ISW analysts note that stopping a well-prepared, large mechanised attack in cold conditions is extremely rare in warfare. This suggests that Russian forces would quickly resume their offensive against Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and key cities in Donetsk if given the opportunity.
The Kremlin is also expanding its military infrastructure in occupied Ukraine, constructing a major highway and railway linking occupied regions with Russia. This project would strengthen Moscow’s control over these territories and improve its ability to transport and resupply forces in any future conflict.
ISW analysts argue that the closer the final ceasefire lines are to the current front line, the more military assistance Ukraine will require from the US and Europe. To effectively deter or defeat future aggression, Ukraine would need an even larger, better-equipped army to defend its 2,100-kilometre-long front line with Russia.
Maintaining a ceasefire under current conditions would also require a substantial Western military presence. Securing strategically important territory for Ukraine, as Trump suggested, could significantly reduce the cost and complexity of guaranteeing long-term peace. A ceasefire on stronger defensive positions would also place Russian forces at a disadvantage, making renewed aggression less likely.
Despite ongoing negotiations, Russian officials continue to demand control over all of occupied Ukraine and large portions of unoccupied Ukrainian territory. Senior Kremlin officials, including Putin, insist that Ukraine must surrender the entire Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, even areas not yet under Russian occupation. In recent weeks, Moscow has reaffirmed these territorial claims, showing no willingness to compromise.
Putin has also demanded that Ukraine permanently abandon its ambitions to join NATO or any security alliance and reject future offers of foreign military aid. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently stated that Moscow would consider any deployment of European peacekeepers in Ukraine as “direct, official, overt intervention by NATO countries” in the war.
Given these demands, ISW concludes that it is highly unlikely Putin will relinquish his ambitions for Ukraine, even if a ceasefire is agreed upon.
Key ISW Takeaways for 16 March
- Mike Waltz stated that Ukraine will receive indefinite security guarantees in exchange for indefinite territorial concessions.
- The current front line does not provide Ukraine with sufficient strategic depth to defend against renewed Russian aggression.
- Russian officials continue to claim control over all occupied and much of unoccupied Ukraine.
- The Kremlin has given no indication that it is willing to compromise on its territorial or security demands.
- Russia is using diplomatic talks with the US to normalise its military objectives.
- The United Kingdom hosted a virtual summit of the Coalition of the Willing on 15 March to reaffirm support for Ukraine and discuss peace plans.
- Ukrainian forces advanced near Borova, while Russian forces made gains in Sumy Oblast and near Velyka Novoselka.
- The Russian Ministry of Defence continues to position itself as addressing problems within its military.
Reminder
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has outlined American plans to end the war in Ukraine. Plan A involves a ceasefire, while Plan B focuses on negotiations for a permanent peace agreement.
US President Donald Trump is attempting to persuade Putin to negotiate peace. However, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham warned that if Putin tries to manipulate Trump, he will regret it.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb has stated that Putin does not want peace and that Ukraine requires more weapons to defend itself.
