Can Europe Replace U.S. Support for Ukraine?

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(Brussels) – Europe Faces Critical Test as U.S. Role in Ukraine Hangs in Balance

With the prospect of reduced U.S. support for Ukraine under Donald Trump, Europe is grappling with its ability to fill the military aid gap, facing challenges in funding, production, and coordination.

As questions loom over whether the U.S. would continue its robust military support for Ukraine under a potential Trump administration, Europe finds itself at a crossroads. While European nations have provided substantial aid—pledging €192 billion compared to the U.S.’s €100 billion—their contributions remain heavily skewed toward non-military assistance, exposing critical vulnerabilities in the continent’s capacity to replace American support in key areas.

Support Comparison	Europe	United States
Total Pledged Aid	€192 billion	€100 billion
Delivered Aid	€118 billion	€84 billion
Military Aid Share	<50%	67%

The U.S. dominates in supplying advanced reconnaissance systems, missile interceptors, and long-range weaponry, areas where Europe lags significantly. Analysts note that while Europe has ramped up artillery shell production, reaching an annual capacity of one million units, it still falls short in fields like satellite reconnaissance, HIMARS ammunition, and precision weaponry—all heavily reliant on American technology.

Europe’s fragmented defense sector and limited budgets exacerbate these challenges. Unlike the U.S., which consolidated its defense industry post-Cold War, Europe operates across multiple small domestic markets with no unified production strategy. This lack of coordination results in logistical inefficiencies, such as a variety of howitzer models supplied to Ukraine, compared to the single model used by the U.S.

Key Shortcomings in Europe’s Defense Industry	Impact
Insufficient defense spending	Only 1/3 of U.S. spending (€313 billion vs. $916B)
Fragmented industry with small domestic markets	Limits production volumes
Heavy reliance on non-EU suppliers	78% of defense spending goes to external sources
Limited innovation and lagging research	Slower progress on next-generation systems
Lack of integrated governance and procurement	Hinders joint scaling of defense production

Despite these hurdles, there are signs of progress. European leaders are calling for greater investment in defense manufacturing, with an emphasis on leveraging nearly €300 billion in frozen Russian Central Bank assets to support Ukraine. Denmark has pioneered direct investment in Ukrainian arms production, funding self-propelled artillery and other systems. Lithuania, Canada, and Norway are following suit.

Ukraine’s defense industry has emerged as a key player. Since 2024, it has produced 2.5 million artillery shells and exceeded annual drone production targets, including 1 million FPV drones. To address its surplus production capacity, Ukraine launched the “Zbroyari” initiative, allowing European countries to fund Ukrainian manufacturing directly for their military needs.

Ukraine’s 2024 Defense Industry Achievements	Production Figures
Artillery shells (60mm to 155mm)	2.5 million produced
FPV drones	Over 1 million
Medium and long-range drones	Surpassed production goals
Domestic enterprises in defense	600

European leaders have increasingly acknowledged Ukraine’s role as a pivotal defense partner. During a recent European summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated that peace depends on strength, urging Europe to bolster its security capabilities while offering clear guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression.