To deter Russian aggression, Ukraine will need a strong military and substantial assistance from the West, particularly along the 2,100-kilometre front line. The current positions do not provide Ukraine with the strategic depth required for effective defence.
According to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukraine will require an even larger army and increased support from the United States and Europe if a ceasefire is reached.
“The US and Europe will likely have to provide military assistance to Ukraine more rapidly, in significantly greater volumes, and at higher costs the closer the final ceasefire lines are to the current front line. Ukraine will likely need even larger armed forces with enhanced capabilities to play its crucial role in deterring and, if necessary, repelling future aggression along the existing front line, both inside Ukraine and along its international border with Russia, which stretches over 2,100 kilometres,” the report states.
ISW analysts emphasise that maintaining a ceasefire along the current front line will require the deployment of a significant number of Western forces. They also note that establishing a ceasefire along more defensible positions would place Russian troops at a disadvantage, making it harder for them to resume offensive operations and reducing the likelihood of future Russian aggression.
The report further highlights that Ukraine’s current front line does not provide the strategic depth needed to reliably defend against renewed Russian attacks.
“Russian troops are positioned on the opposite bank of the Dnipro River from Kherson, approximately 25 kilometres from Zaporizhzhia and 30 kilometres from Kharkiv. Russian forces along the Dnipro could use a ceasefire to prepare for an extremely difficult river crossing, significantly increasing their chances of success in such an operation,” the report warns.
Stopping a well-prepared, large mechanised offensive in wartime is extremely rare, ISW analysts note. This means that if Russia resumes its assault, it could almost immediately threaten Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, as well as key cities in the Donetsk “fortress belt”.
Analysts also point out that Russia is constructing a major highway and railway network to connect occupied cities in Ukraine with Russia. This infrastructure will strengthen Moscow’s control over occupied territories and improve its ability to transport and supply Russian forces in the event of a future offensive in southern Ukraine.
