As Russia announced a unilateral Easter ceasefire in Ukraine this past weekend, hopes for peace remained dim. The former United States Ambassador to the European Union under President Barack Obama, Anthony Gardner, warned there is no real evidence of a ceasefire taking effect. Instead, the Kremlin’s promises appear hollow, and Gardner expressed deep concern that former President Donald Trump has “adopted and accepted” Russian President Vladimir Putin’s version of events in Ukraine’s ongoing war.
Gardner described Trump’s repeated claims that Ukraine started the war as “absurd,” warning that such rhetoric aligns directly with Kremlin propaganda. The remarks come after a meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office, during which Trump and allies like JD Vance seemed open to narratives justifying Russian aggression. Gardner noted this shift as a serious red flag for European allies and Ukraine’s future.
Trump previously vowed to end the war within hours of returning to office, but Gardner noted the conflict’s complexity defies such promises. Despite some recent progress on a US–Ukraine minerals agreement — which, if finalised, could provide the US with a tangible stake in Ukraine’s postwar economy — the broader security situation remains fragile.
Gardner insisted that robust security guarantees are essential for Ukraine. He reminded listeners of the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, in which Ukraine surrendered its nuclear arsenal in exchange for territorial guarantees from the UK, the US, and Russia. These guarantees proved worthless, he said, pointing to Russia’s invasion in 2014 and its full-scale war beginning in 2022.
“We cannot afford to repeat that mistake,” Gardner said. Zelensky and Ukraine need “serious, credible, multi-state military guarantees,” especially with pressure mounting from pro-Russian voices like Hungary, which now threatens to derail the European Union’s sanctions regime against Moscow.
Gardner reflected on the West’s past failings, including the sluggish response to the 2014 Crimea annexation. “It took us six months to act meaningfully. Sanctions were slow and ineffective at first,” he said. That inaction, he argued, emboldened the Kremlin.
While the West eventually tightened its sanctions, targeting Russian energy and financial sectors, Gardner emphasised how difficult coalition-building remains, especially with shifting US leadership and European divisions. He praised the more recent coordinated sanctions but warned that European resolve may now waver.
Worse still, Trump’s recent remarks, echoed by US Senator Marco Rubio, suggest a troubling willingness to disengage. They reportedly said the US would “take a pass” if peace talks failed, a comment Gardner found deeply troubling. “This is not a conflict that can be fixed in a day,” he warned.
Gardner described Putin’s long-term objective as the erasure of Ukraine’s national identity, culture, and sovereignty. “Putin has repeatedly denied Ukraine’s right to exist,” he said, adding that a democratic Ukraine remains a “mortal threat” to the Kremlin because it offers Russians a glimpse of freedom and democracy.
If the West falters now, Gardner warned, not just Ukraine but the whole of Europe could be at risk. Putin’s ambitions do not end at Ukraine’s borders. “The Baltic states are worried. Poland is worried. We should all be,” he said.
