Browder Analysis: Trump Misunderstands Putin’s Need for Perpetual Conflict (Video)

Despite these immense setbacks and failures, such as the inability to capture Kyiv or fully control the Donbas, Putin remains in power through ruthless suppression. Browder pointed to the failed mutiny and subsequent death of Yevgeny Prigozhin as an example of the risks Putin faces, but also his capacity to eliminate threats. He asserted Putin has run out of positive incentives (“carrots”) and now relies solely on repression (“sticks”), a difficult position to maintain long term as discontent could erupt unexpectedly. The fear extends to the oligarchs, who Browder believes are too terrified of meeting a fatal accident, like falling from a window, to voice any dissent, instead keeping their heads down.

Regarding Donald Trump, Browder views him as the latest in a line of US presidents (including George W Bush, Barack Obama, and initially Joe Biden) whom Putin sought to manipulate by appealing to their egos and desire for personal diplomacy. Trump’s repeated claims that he can quickly end the war are dismissed by Browder as unrealistic posturing designed to make him look like a “deal maker”. Browder noted that Putin’s strategy involves engaging in superficial discussions, like those involving Kirill Dmitriev or talks about embassy staffing mentioned by Marco Rubio, to create an illusion of progress that helps Trump politically, while the actual war continues unabated. Putin fundamentally aims to divide Western powers, celebrating Brexit and exploiting any rifts within NATO and the European Union.

The potential withdrawal of the United States under Trump poses a significant challenge, removing roughly 40 percent of financial and military aid, crucial intelligence from satellites, and vital air defence systems like Patriot missiles. However, Browder stressed that Europe, the UK, Canada, and Japan still provide 60 percent of aid and possess considerable combined economic strength, far exceeding Russia’s $2.2 trillion (approx £1.76 trillion) economy. He advocated for the confiscation and use of the $300 billion (around £240 billion) in frozen Russian assets held in the West to fund Ukraine’s defence. Ukraine’s ingenuity in striking Russian vulnerabilities, such as oil refineries using long range drones, demonstrates their capacity to inflict significant pain. The approval of long range missiles like the German Taurus, capable of hitting targets 500 kilometres away, could further disrupt Russian logistics and protect Ukrainian civilians. Falling oil prices, with Urals crude dropping below comfortable levels for Moscow, also add economic pressure.

Russia’s desperation is evident in its reliance on North Korea for up to 80 percent of its artillery ammunition, as well as support from Iran and China. Browder noted China is benefiting immensely, securing cheap oil and market access while watching Western democracies expend resources. This situation serves as a test case for China’s ambitions towards Taiwan; a US abandonment of Ukraine would be seen as a green light by Beijing. Browder warned that the perceived unreliability of US security guarantees under Trump is fuelling a dangerous new nuclear arms race, with countries like Germany and Poland exploring options, distinct from the earlier ignored Budapest Memorandum assurances. He concluded that Putin, a “true menace to the world”, will never willingly rejoin the global order and must be militarily forced to withdraw from Ukraine. This requires the West, particularly a united Europe stepping up in America’s potential absence, to provide Ukraine with all the weapons it needs to decisively defeat the invasion.