With Donald Trump’s administration in The White House looms, a long dismissed idea has been resurrected— Russia’s war in Ukraine is not just about territory or imperial nostalgia, but about cold, hard minerals. While Moscow scrambles for excuses to justify its invasion, the Ukrainian Association of Geologists estimates that Ukraine holds a staggering 5% of the world’s critical minerals, including titanium, uranium, lithium, and rare earth elements. That’s enough wealth buried underground to make Kremlin oligarchs drool like hungry wolves circling a wounded prey.
Modern warfare isn’t just about oil anymore. As the world moves towards clean technology, control over critical minerals has become as important as black gold once was. Unlike oil, which is burned and gone, metals essential for clean energy—like lithium and gallium—can be stored and used indefinitely. Yet, before Putin fantasises about turning Ukraine into his personal treasure chest, he should consider the economics.
While oil markets move trillions of dollars annually, the entire lithium market generates a meagre $30 billion per year. Copper, the most traded mineral, brings in just $270 billion—still a fraction of what crude oil commands. If Russia dreams of using Ukraine’s minerals to bankroll its war machine, it’s akin to raiding a piggy bank to fund a military budget.
| Resource | Annual Global Trade (Tons) | Market Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | 5 billion | Trillions |
| Copper | 30 million | $270 billion |
| Lithium | 1.5 million | $30 billion |
| Gallium | Small | Small |
With sanctions strangling Russia’s economy, Moscow won’t be selling minerals to Europe anytime soon. Meanwhile, China, the world’s refining giant, will dictate prices and conditions. Either Russia must pivot towards a green economy—a laughable notion given its dependence on fossil fuels—or it must settle for China’s rock-bottom offers. That’s like trading a Ferrari for a Soviet-era Lada and calling it a win.
Even if Russia managed to exploit Ukraine’s resources, the economic payoff would be peanuts without Western technology, industrial policies, and access to global clean-tech markets. Fifteen years of Kremlin arrogance cost Russia the chance to lead in these industries, leaving it stuck selling outdated commodities while the rest of the world moves on. Its nickel and platinum reserves are losing relevance as combustion engines phase out, and its once-dominant metal markets are being flooded with cheaper alternatives from Indonesia and beyond.
For Ukraine, however, these minerals offer a path to economic revival. If Kyiv secures investment post-war, it could leverage its reserves to attract supply chains moving out of Germany and other EU nations. With smart policies, Ukraine could tax profits rather than extraction, boosting its currency without crippling the industry.
In a world shifting towards AI, defense spending, and renewable energy, Ukraine holds vital elements—such as titanium for weapons, neon gas for semiconductors, and gallium for high-tech manufacturing. While Russia is stuck playing the role of a desperate thief, Ukraine has the chance to position itself as a critical supplier for the future.
