Former senior British military intelligence officer Philip Ingram warned that declining oil revenues are fast eroding Russia’s capacity to sustain its war in Ukraine in a wide ranging discussion for Frontline. With Brent crude prices falling below 80 US dollars (around £64), Moscow’s finances are under severe strain, and Vladimir Putin’s invasion is showing economic signs of faltering.
Russia’s budget, heavily dependent on oil and gas exports, is suffering due to global pressure on the shadow tanker fleet and targeted Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries and storage. These developments have slashed Russia’s ability to export and refine crude, tightening the financial vice.
“Putin needs to sell even more to make the same money,” Ingram said. “But with crude prices falling and Ukraine hitting infrastructure, he’s running out of room.”
According to estimates, Russia’s economy might only withstand this pressure for another couple of months before signs of collapse become visible. Though official indicators like GDP growth appear stable, Ingram warned the Russian economy “is built on quicksand”.
Ingram also addressed questions about rare earth minerals in Ukraine, a factor believed to interest former US President Donald Trump. Rare earth metals are essential for high-tech manufacturing and defence systems, and Trump’s attention to Ukraine may be partially motivated by these resources.
Ingram stated that Putin seems confident, perhaps due to perceived backing from Trump allies like Richard Grenell and envoy Ric Grenell, who are echoing Russian narratives. He questioned whether Trump would act in Ukraine’s interests or merely his own.
Regarding military threats, Ingram does not believe Russia can challenge NATO or even Ukraine in the long term. However, he voiced concern about global instability, pointing to tensions involving China, North Korea, and the United States’ economic war with Beijing.
“We are not heading into scary times,” he concluded. “We are in them.”
Fuel prices in Scandinavia also reflect the broader economic trend. For instance, in Norway, diesel has dropped from 22.60 kroner per litre to around 15.16 kroner per litre (£1.33), a significant fall since the onset of the war. While this is good news for consumers, it is disastrous for Russia’s economic engine.
Ingram believes that when the financial hit does land, it will come fast and with major consequences for Russia’s ability to continue its war effort. The West, he warns, must not ignore the seriousness of the moment, even if the Kremlin tries to appear in control.
