Russia’s war in Ukraine is heading for a financial crisis that could cripple Vladimir Putin’s military ambitions, according to financier and Kremlin critic Sir Bill Browder. Speaking on Times Radio’s Frontline, Browder explained that the sharp drop in Russian oil revenues could drive the country into an economic disaster with major consequences for the invasion.
Oil is the cornerstone of Russia’s economy, particularly in funding its war against Ukraine. But global market dynamics, intensified by tariff battles, have caused a steep decline in the price of Urals crude, Russia’s main oil export. It is now trading around $51 per barrel (approx. £41), far below the level Russia needs to sustain its budget and military spending. That is a 15 to 20 percent drop compared to earlier prices.
| Oil Type | Price (USD) | Price (GBP) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urals Crude | $51 | £41 | -15% to -20% |
“If prices stay this low or fall further, Russia could face a real economic catastrophe,” Browder said. “Putin would be much less able to continue fighting the war in Ukraine.”
Russia’s internal military production also appears strained. Browder cited intelligence that up to 80 percent of Russia’s artillery ammunition is now being sourced from North Korea, highlighting severe shortfalls in domestic manufacturing. China and Iran have become key partners in keeping Russia afloat militarily and economically, offering discounted sales and strategic cover.
Browder referenced shocking reports from a recent Ukrainian press conference where two captured Chinese soldiers claimed Russian forces tried to kill them with chemical weapons rather than allow them to fall into enemy hands — a sign of growing desperation in Moscow’s war strategy.
Meanwhile, China is benefiting from Russia’s economic crisis. Beijing is reportedly buying Russian oil at a discount and expanding into markets vacated by Western companies. Chinese smartphones and vehicles have replaced Western goods in Russian shops, allowing China to grow its influence without spending military resources.
“China is watching the West drain its resources supporting Ukraine,” Browder said. “And they’re making money and gaining power while we’re paying the bill.”
He warned that if Ukraine wins, it could have a significant deterrent effect on Chinese ambitions to take Taiwan. However, if the West appears weak or divided — especially if the United States pulls support — it will embolden dictatorships worldwide.
Russia’s losses in the war are staggering. Ukrainian estimates claim that 940,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded, with 11,000 tanks and 45,000 military vehicles destroyed. Additionally, £240 billion ($300 billion) in Russian foreign reserves remains frozen in the West.
Despite these devastating losses, Putin remains unmoved, Browder noted. As an unaccountable autocrat, he does not face pressure from voters, the media, or the courts.
“Any democratic leader would have been forced out after suffering even one percent of these losses,” he said. “But Putin stays because his position gives him unimaginable personal wealth and power.”
Browder estimates that Putin and his close circle have stolen £800 billion to £1 trillion ($1 to $1.25 trillion) from the Russian people during his twenty-five years in power. This enormous theft, he argued, is the real reason behind the war. By creating a foreign enemy — Ukraine — Putin distracts his people and justifies his grip on power.
As for Donald Trump, Browder accused him of being the only major figure to deny Putin’s role in starting the war. Trump’s promises of quick deals and peace plans, Browder said, are hollow. “Putin does not want peace. He needs war to survive politically.”
The future remains uncertain. While Putin’s control looks stable, Browder cautioned that dictatorships can collapse suddenly. “We cannot predict the fall of Putin,” he said. “But we must not plan for it either. What we can do is ensure Ukraine prevails — because that is what truly terrifies both Putin and Xi Jinping.”
