Despite the Kremlin’s recent claims of openness to negotiations, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has issued a warning: no negotiations will lead to a sustainable peace as long as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demands remain unchanged. The ISW’s analysis highlights that Putin’s stance, which demands Ukraine’s complete surrender, is the primary obstacle to any meaningful peace talks.
On January 10, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to engage in talks with US President-elect Donald Trump, and this could happen without any preconditions. However, Peskov also made it clear that Moscow’s position on Ukraine would not change. In fact, Putin’s previous statements have firmly outlined Russia’s goals: the removal of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government, the “denazification” of Ukraine, the transfer of significant Ukrainian territories to Russia, and Ukraine’s demilitarization.
These demands, according to the ISW, are unrealistic and would effectively mean Ukraine’s complete surrender, which makes any negotiations under these terms pointless. The ISW report stresses that as long as Putin insists on these conditions, no talks—no matter how open or diplomatic—will result in a lasting or meaningful peace.
The situation is further complicated by the Kremlin’s ongoing military objectives. As the conflict continues, there is no sign of Putin backing down from his aggressive stance. In fact, Russian officials have called for an escalation of hostilities rather than negotiations, with some even advocating for partial conscriptions to boost military efforts.
| Key Events (January 10, 2025) | Details |
|---|---|
| Negotiations with Trump | Kremlin ready to negotiate with President-elect Trump but insists on unchanged demands |
| Putin’s Position on Ukraine | Putin demands Ukraine’s complete surrender, including removal of Zelenskyy and transfer of territory |
| ISW Analysis | No sustainable peace possible as long as Putin’s conditions remain the same |
| US, UK, Japan Sanctions | US, UK, and Japan announce new sanctions against Russia |
| EU Funding to Ukraine | EU transfers €3 billion (around $3.07 billion) to Ukraine from frozen Russian assets |
| Russian Military Advancements | Russian forces advance in the Kursk region and near key Ukrainian towns |
| Russian Soldier Casualties | BBC and Mediazona confirm at least 88,055 Russian soldiers have died since the war began in 2022 |
While the Kremlin may profess readiness to engage in dialogue, the ISW makes it clear that Putin’s terms for peace are non-negotiable. The focus of Russian officials, particularly senior military and security leaders, seems to remain on intensifying military operations. These leaders have continued to push for more aggressive actions on the battlefield instead of seeking a diplomatic resolution.
The international community, meanwhile, is responding with sanctions and continued support for Ukraine. The United States, United Kingdom, and Japan have imposed new sanctions on Russia, while the European Union has sent another tranche of financial aid to Ukraine. Despite these efforts, the situation remains far from resolved, and the prospect of peace is increasingly tied to a shift in the Kremlin’s position—one that does not seem likely in the near future.
